Before we address the COVID-19 virus and business, we want to extend our best wishes to the individuals who have gotten the virus. As well as their families. In addition, we wish for the earliest possible containment and resolution.
We must not panic. But rather, we need to follow the best advice possible. Check out these sites devoted to COVID-19 (the novel coronavirus):
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
- World Health Organization
- Johns Hopkins Medicine
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
- Kaufman Family Foundation
- Consumer Reports
- World Vision
Scenario Analysis and Contingency Planning
Three-and-a-half years ago, we discussed scenario analysis and contingency planning as business tools. Today, these tools are quite relevant. Although, from a societal perspective, the prevalence of COVID-19 is a significant worst-case situation.
As we wrote before:
Scenario planning involves planning for the future by understanding that different marketplace outcomes may occur in response to any strategy. Thus, each possible marketplace outcome must be planned for to avoid the worst case scenario.
The premise of scenario planning is to anticipate the possibility of each of these outcomes occurring. AND have in place a pre-planned framework (contingency plan) to deal with each scenario.
Here is new infographic from the India Health Ministry on these two topics. Available from Social News XYZ by clicking the image.
Where We Are At: The COVID-19 Virus and Business
As of mid-March 2020, organizations have taken steps in response to COVID-19. Following are some examples, involving activities to slow the spread of the virus:
- From McKinsey & Company: “In our analysis, three broad economic scenarios might unfold. (1) A quick recovery. (2) A global slowdown. (3) A pandemic-driven recession. Here, we outline all three (See the exhibit). In the prevalent narrative, both markets and policy makers seem to favor a pessimistic outcome as they respond to the virus. However, we believe that underweights the possibility of a more optimistic outcome to COVID-19 evolution.”
- First, the Ivy League cancelled its men’s and women’s basketball tournaments. Then it decided to cancel all Spring 2020 sports. The major professional sports leagues closed their locker rooms. And debated whether to have games without fans. For both professional and amateur U.S. sports. This situation has evolved every day. With calls to not hold events with a lot of attendees. In Europe, the postponements and events without fans have exploded. Everything in Italy is shut down. On March 11, the NCAA announced that all basketball tournament games (“March Madness”) would be held without fans. Then Wednesday night, March 11, the NBA announced it was suspending the season due to a positive test of one of its players.
- Advertising Age highlights/tracks cancelled and postponed events; and regularly updates the tracker. More events are added every day. Just some highlights below.
- Believe it or not, some brands are doing well as consumers buy more of certain products. Thus, Ilyse Liffrein reports this for Advertising Age: “Some brands are seeing their products sell out or their stock rise amid the turmoil.” click on the chart.